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Strike That! Something to Bitch About

PoliticsHaving just said I didn’t have much to say today, I went and found something.

I had read Chris Cillizza’s piece on the Hillary polls yesterday and didn’t really take the time to read it carefully. I saw it referenced on the Hotline’s Blogometer and took a second look because of something they quoted.

According to the Hotline/Diageo poll, as Washington Post’s Cillizza puts it, “approximately one-fifth of Republicans view Clinton favorably — a group (perhaps moderate women that lean toward the GOP) that could push her over the top in a general election.”

Yeah, Chris, that’s likely to happen. Are you out of your mind?

Let’s look at where John Kerry stood with Republicans just nine months shy of the 2004 election?

Kerry Favorability in February 2004

Kerry was viewed favorably by nearly twice as many GOPers with 1/3 of the time remaining before the election. As elections draw closer, and as your party begins to tell you the vile little secrets their opponent is hiding, favorable ratings go down, not up.

If barely 20 percent like her now, that number will be in single digits – if not decimal points – by November of 2008. If you think that’s a sign she’ll win, maybe you’ll take a bet a bet on Denver winning the Super Bowl next weekend. (note to readers in Maryland: yes, I know they lost last Sunday. I was making a point about Chris not being able to pick a winner even after the contest is over.)

Chris concludes a swing by female GOPers toward Hillary could help her win the general election. That makes me laugh… Really laugh… Milk coming out my nose laugh…

But then again, that’s why I don’t pay for the Post. If you’re looking for accuracy, or good forecasting, look elsewhere.

Written by Michael Turk