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My Newt Prediction

On Friday, Chris Cillizza wrote about Newt’s comments at CPAC, his interview, and a potential Newt08 bid for the Presidency.

No decision will come before a national issues conference being organized by Gingrich that is set for Sept. 27 — the anniversary of the day Gingrich unveiled the “Contract With America” in 1994.

With the Presidential election process being what it is, and the three prospects we currently have (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney), the next six months are going to be bloody. There will be a brutal battle to win the staff and money battle. If Newt were to jump in now, he’d likely end up battered.

It would be very interesting if he waited until the field settles (perhaps early October), and then jumps in.

While the conventional wisdom argues that would be disastrous – with little time to organize a ground game and raise money, I am not so sure. By that time, especially given the frenetic pace of the campaign at this early stage, there is a possibility that a voter backlash will occur. I have heard many friends commenting that they are thoroughly unthrilled at our current field of GOP candidates. What support exists is generally qualified with “Well, you have to pick one of the three, so I find him more appealing than the other two but I’d still prefer someone else.”

If Newt has a big-splash event in late September, uses that to raise cash, and starts to pick up the staff of candidates who (likely) will be thinning their herd due to resource limitations, he would be able to peak right as we’re entering the primaries. He could, conceivably, run an aggressive insurgent race against a severely wounded GOP frontrunner. and pick up the nomination without engaging in a full year of brutal campaigning.

The only question is whether Newt is the kind of guy that would use a high-risk, high-yield strategy. He would have to know there is a good possibility that the plan fails. He’d have to accept that it’s the equivalent of going all-in on a poker hand before the first card hits the table.

Is he the kind of guy to do that? I think he may be.

Written by Michael Turk