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More on Lost and Improbability


If you haven’t yet seen the episode of Lost that just aired, you may want to stop reading right now, and come back later. Go ahead… This post will still be here when you’re done…

For the rest of you, you should digest my post from earlier today about Lost and the Infinite Improbability drive if you haven’t. I’m now more convinced than ever that improbability has a lot to do with the show. This post will expand on that earlier thought.

If you believe that the island could be a place where thoughts become reality and the improbable becomes certainty, this episode had a lot to offer.

As an example, Ms. Hawking talks about the Lighthouse station as a tool to determine “the probability” of where the island will be. So probability plays a significant role in determining the location of the island.

During the flight, Jack talks with Kate about the improbaility of Hurley and Sayid being on the same plane by coincidence.

What are the odds that Sayid would be cuffed to a law enforcement officer – the same way Kate was when the plane first crashed?

Who told Hurley to take the guitar on the plane (as Charlie did when they first crashed)?

How improbable was it that Jack would go visit his grandfather and find the pair of shoes belonging to his dad?

Finally, there’s the note. As Jack said, he kept trying to get rid of it, yet it kept returning – highly improbable to be sure. What was absolutely certain to happen, however, was Jack’s reaction to the note.

Locke knew that Jack, reading a note that said, “I wish you had believed me” would immediately think to himself “I wish I had too.”

Under the hybrid zero-point/improbability theory, that wish, in proximity to the island, would immediately be granted – though again, not in the way they expected.



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Written by Michael Turk