Campaigns in New Mexico are generally won or lost by the GOP in absentee/early voting. A significant portion of our GOTV budget was always aimed at turning in as many votes as early as we could. The pachyderms are so successful in beating Democrats through absentee balloting that the legislature, almost every year, revamps the absentee voting laws in an effort to stave off defeat by those inclined to vote by mail.
If current stats hold, however, that trend may be coming to a close.
Joe Monahan, who blogs on all things political in New Mexico, has some numbers that should make the GOP uneasy and scare Heather Wilson absolutely s**tless.
Of the 13,000 folks who signed up to get those [absentee] ballots, a stunning 69%, or about 9,000 of them, are from Dems. It’s an early sign that the Donkey is kicking, while the Elephant may be napping.
If those numbers stay lopsided, and the NM GOP and national committees don’t get very, very aggressive with their turnout operation, we’ve probably lost a seat in NM-01.